1. Briefing of Important News
This week, prices of PrNd, DyFe, and Tb kept stable and increased slightly. Price from Asian Metal at this weekend presented: PrNd metal 378-383RMB/KG, DyFe alloy 1840-1860RMB/KG, and Tb metal 5070-5120RMB/KG.
2. Analysis of Professional Insiders
This week, the trend of rare earth has been reversed, and the weak position has stopped stabilizing and rising. Due to the escalation of Sino-US trade wars, the rare earth policy has benefited from the hotbed reappearance, and the rare earth has warmed up instantaneously, creating preliminary conditions for the soaring.
With the slightest effect of the negotiations between China and the United States at the end of August, the United States immediately announced that the remaining 300 billion products in the 500 billion lists will be subject to a 10% tariff on September 1st. The political level of rare earth has increased once again. And the possibility and urgency of implementing the previously stalled policies have appeared again. Policy expectation has instantly changed the mentality of the industry. The market transferred to the seller's initiative, the inquiry is greatly increased and the reluctance to sell is obvious, and the future expectation is considerable.
In addition, the import data of rare earth in Myanmar plummeted in June, further hampering the previously accessible Longchuan region due to the rainy season. The rainy season in Myanmar was long, and the import volume growth was unsightly in the future, which will undoubtedly add support to domestic heavy rare earth.
Although Australia, Canada, Japan, and Mongolia have made initial overtures to the United States, the "Rare Earth Alliance" of the United States camp version has taken shape. However, relying solely on the output of these countries to solve the shortage of rare earth in the United States is still far from sufficient, and the competitiveness of rare earth industry in China can destroy the power of foreign rare earth once again. The rare earth separation technology in China is far ahead of the rest of the world, it will take at least three to five years for a new factory to be ready for mass production; China is blessed with heavy rare earth resources. Although some Australian enterprises plan to develop dysprosium separation projects, there is no doubt that the water is far from the fire, and it all fell apart. The rare earth industry of China is well-developed, and no foreign factory (including Lynas) can compete with it in cost competitiveness. Even if there is short-term investment support from the U.S. government, it will still cause great pressure and hesitation for foreign rare earth investors.
The policy boost has already had its meaning and necessity. The gears of rising rare earth began to turn. In the future, rare earth are likely to usher in a leap again. (Ruidow Rare Earth Information)
Listing price on July 29th from China Southern Rare Earth
Unit: 10,000RMB/ton (EXW price incl. VAT)
3. Tendency Chart (refer to Asian Metal)
